Watching the polls in Germany

Green candidate Annalena Baerbock had a surge of support when she announced her candidacy for Chancellor in May. As a fresh challenger, a dynamic personality (and the only female candidate in the race) she had been briefly leading the polls.

It didn’t actually seem likely that the Greens would leap all the way from 9% of the vote in 2017 to over 20% in 2021. Baerbock’s relative lack of experience has weighed on her campaign and she is now polling third with 18%. But even 15% on September 26 would be a very significant gain for the Green Party.

It may be that after this election, going forward, the German electorate will be supporting three major parties which each consistently poll in the range of 15 to 30% (the conservative Christian Democrats, the liberal Social Democrats, and the Greens), and then three minor parties which poll in the range of 5 to 15% (the centrist Free Democrats, the nationalist Alternative for Germany, and the socialist Left Party). It’s possible that the Greens will be included in the next government, which could be comprised of a three-way coalition.