May 8, 2022
The statistics of energy and the energy of people
There are guys who know all kinds of statistics about energy technologies.
. current power consumption of the US is 4 petawatts per year
. 30% higher by 2040
. 3.5 acres of 13–14% efficient solar panels to generate 1 megawatt of electricity
. enough for 164 homes
. with more efficient solar cells, 1.5 acres is probably sufficient
. solar farms will cost $500,000 per acre in 2030
. the goal is to have the cost of residential solar installations drop by 60% from 2020
. solar cells have been demonstrated in the lab above 30% efficiency
. 6,000 square miles is enough to meet the current power needs of the US
. there are 130 million residential and commercial buildings in the US
. placing solar panels on each rooftop would supply 34% of our electricity needs; 50% by 2050
. perovskite cells are as efficient as current silicon cells and considerably cheaper
. re: bronze solar cells, their efficiency is only 12.5%, but they will soon be as efficient as silicon-based cells
. the US has a potential of 10 terawatts of onshore wind generation capacity
. 10 terawatts is nine times our current needs
. there is the potential for another 4 terawatts of more expensive offshore wind power
. SETO (Solar Energy Technology Office) expects costs to drop by half between 2020 and 2030
. 14-megawatt versions are in operation, and a 16-megawatt version is being certified
. doubling the length of the blades quadruples the power
. the windspeed onshore is 11 mph while a few miles offshore is 20 mph
. lithium-ion batteries for storage will give way to lithium iron phosphate (LFP) and iron flow
. lithium-sulfur batteries are a promising technology
. Theion clams its Generation 4, due in 2024, will have a 900 mile range
. the batteries will be 70% cheaper than current Lithium-ion
. iron-flow batteries could have a capacity for 7 days if you add bigger tanks at a cost of $20/kWh
. re: nuclear power … NuScale costs $3.60/watt
. NuScale claims a single module producing 77 megawatts would be in the $60–70 million range
. Bill Gates’s TerraPower plant will cost $12 per watt
. Gates and the government are investing $4 billion in TerraPower’s 345-megawatt Natrium plant
. solar cost of generated power per kilowatt-hour: utility-scale cost 2020: $1.00/watt
. SETO (Solar Energy Technology Office) has two goals for 2030
. a low-cost farm costs $0.55/watt
. a high-cost farm costs $0.75/watt with a 6.3% higher power output
. SETO estimates 2030 low-cost rooftop solar at $1.30/watt
. 2030 wind cost: utility-scale $1.00/watt 2022, 25% to 50% lower in 2030
So there are technologies and there are statistics about the technologies.
And then there are people. They lack the energy to deal with all of that.
