Results of yesterday’s German federal elections
The Greens got their best result in history [14.8%], nearly doubling from 2017. This is also the first federal election in which they won single-member constituency seats outside of Berlin. However, expectations for them were a lot higher, with polling at over 20% during the summer. Their slump in the polls was largely attributed to a number of gaffes from and the personal unpopularity of Annalena Baerbock, though polls show that a lot of Green voters migrated to the SPD in the final weeks of the campaign to ensure the CDU would not form government.
The SPD (Social Democrats) had their best result since 2005 at 25.7%; it is also the first time since 2002 that they emerged as the largest party in the Bundestag.
The CDU/CSU (Christian Democrats) had their worst result in German history at 24%, eclipsing the previous worst result of 31% in 1949. Many prominent CDU politicians were defeated in their single-member constituency seats.
The FDP (Free Democrats) gained a few seats and had their second best showing since German reunification.
The AfD (Alternative for Germany) lost a few seats and went from the third biggest to the second smallest party in the Bundestag. They performed strongly in the former East Germany, where they won a lot of single-member constituency seats in Saxony (where they won all but one), Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia, largely due to the weakness of the CDU.
The “Left Party” (Die Linke) had their worst showing since 2002, slumping from 69 seats in 2017 to just 39. They did not pass the election threshold of 5% but won at least three single-member constituency seats (two in their stronghold in eastern Berlin, down from four, and on in Leipzig II), entitling them to representation in the Bundestag according to their second votes. Apart from this symbolic defeat, their preferred coalition, a left-wing red–red–green coalition, does not have a majority in the Bundestag, effectively shutting them out of government.
* * * *
The ultimate governing coalition will be determined through negotiations over the next several weeks or months. Most likely is a three-way coalition between the SPD, the Greens, and the FDP.