"Or don't you believe in tipping points and feedback loops?"

I believe we can't avoid them.

Don't hope for mitigation. The inertia we're trying to counter is way too strong. Have no delusions. Figure on The Long Emergency.

Sure, anything we can get the nation-states to do right is worthwhile, but they won't do much. Eventually they will break down and disappear. Then we'll go back to living bioregionally as we did for six million years before the Neolithic Revolution.

Jeff Gibbs says don't hope for mitigation:

"I am going to post this answer to some questions amounting to, 'how I can say that the world's population and consumption rose like a ten-mile tall spike as fossil fuels came into intense use, and will fall just as hard and fast once they go away?' Here is my answer:

"Our human ability for self-deception is unrivaled. The basic reality is that our population exploded from around 1 billion to near 8 billion once we tapped into fossil fuels. That's not up for debate. That that might continue at all is one of the most foolish, and I might, add selfish, beliefs possible. It requires one to actively deny the basics of population and system dynamics and doom billions to brutal deaths during the coming collapse.

"But it gets worse. Our human per person consumption has also increased by on average more than ten fold since fossil fuels. TEN TIMES. That means, population times consumption, our total global economy is 80 times larger than before we began to burn through literally millions of years of stored fossil energy every year. THAT is why all life systems on earth are in furious collapse. And I repeat, NONE of that existed before fossil fuels. And none of the supposed replacements for fossil fuels existed before fossil fuels--it takes a giant, planet wrecking fossil fuel based industrial civilization to make them.

"Even at 1% of our human presence around 150 years ago, again before fossil fuels, the forests, grasslands, whales and wildlife of the planet were being actively destroyed as "civilization" spread to every corner of the living earth. To believe that a human presence 80 times larger than this already destructive baseline will remain in this stratosphere is a lie, a deception so great, it is almost unfathomable. Yet, business, industry, academia, politics, narcissism, our own comfort, civilization itself, requires this lie to keep us going down this road with blinders on.

"Oceans and mountains of fossil fuels powering machines and enabling more logging, mining, buildings, fishing, hunting, roads, agriculture and humans have enabled the vastly expanded the rape of nature, accelerating the massacre of life on earth---half of all wildlife has been obliterated in recent decades for instance. Now 90% of the fish are gone. 96% of mammals. 70% of forests cut. And growing. That is why the supposed solutions of "renewable" energy, even if it was real and it is not, and nuclear, even if it were possible to run civilization on them, are just more of the same.

"Again, that anyone thinks that our population and economy can remain orders of magnitude above baseline PERIOD, much less after fossil fuels decline, is participating in the greatest delusion in planetary history. Ignoring how vastly beyond overshoot we humans are, and how fast and hard we will be coming down in a collapse of both global ecosystems and the fuels that enabled our exponential growth, is delusional."