It says “there’s trouble ahead”

Steven Welzer
Oct 29, 2021

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So . . .

Stock dividend yields lower than inflation, bond rate yields lower than inflation.

So . . .

With ascending stock prices having resulted in real gains (capital gains) and investors shunning negative-real-yield bonds, money keeps pouring into stocks. The Catch-22 is that every rise in the prices serves to drive the dividend yield even lower. Right now it’s at the lowest it’s ever been except for a couple of months at the peak of the tech-stocks bubble in 1999–2000.

So . . .

When the ascent finally stops, all returns will be negative in real terms for a whole historical period.

That spells trouble for the capitalist system.

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Steven Welzer
Steven Welzer

Written by Steven Welzer

A Green Party activist, Steve was an original co-editor of DSA’s “Ecosocialist Review.” He now serves on the Editorial Board of the New Green Horizons webzine.

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