15 months

… focusing on 5%.

The Green Party Annual National Meeting just ended. The next one will be the 2024 Nominating Convention, probably in June or July.

High hopes.

… focusing on 5%.

Starting so early, and with a relatively high-profile candidate, the Greens have a chance.

There are X% of voters who are not ideological but dislike the establishment parties and therefore will vote for the most prominent alternative party candidate. In recent years the Green Party has tended to be viewed as the secondary alternative. Unfortunately (they have a screwy ideology) the most prominent third party has been the Libertarians. So they’ve gotten more votes. They do tend to attract more affluent people than the Greens do. But since 2020 they’ve been somewhat in disarray (internal factional contention). If that keeps them from recruiting a strong candidate for president, the Greens could be viewed as the most prominent alternative in 2024.

A third-party candidate getting 5% in this system is a very rare event. During the last 50 years it’s only been accomplished once. That was by a flaky candidate and flaky party — Ross Perot’s Reform Party, which was short-lived.

What will matter, in terms of opening up the American electoral system, will be the time when an enduring-recognized third party starts to get 5% on a regular basis. It hasn’t happened in over a hundred years (the Socialist Party was looking viable circa 1900–1920, but stopped being viable after that).

What 5% means, tangibly, is that a party gets millions of dollars in federal funds during its next presidential election cycle. Much more important than the money is the gravitas.

… focusing on 5%. My probability thermometer stands at 20%. It will be updated every two months between now and 11/5/2024.